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BOJ Meeting Takes Centre-Stage

JAPAN
  • The most recent Nikkei report and the associated moves for the JPY place the overnight BOJ meeting/decision as considerably more significant. We noted earlier that overnight USDJPY vols had surged sharply as the contract begins to capture the Friday BoJ; adding close to 30 points to hit the highest level since the March and January BoJ meetings, both of which were preceded by fraught speculation of a YCC tweak, contrasting with very little sell-side expectations of such a move.
  • As we noted in our markets team preview, recent statements from BoJ Governor Ueda indicate that the Bank has no intention of altering its monetary policy settings as long as they remain convinced that achieving a sustainable and stable +2% inflation is still a distant prospect.
  • Furthermore, Governor Ueda's perception of bond market functioning has remained largely unchanged since the policy meetings in April and June. This is noteworthy because improved bond market functioning was cited as a crucial factor in the decision not to make any policy alterations during those meetings.
  • The MNI policy team had also referenced that the meeting is likely to see discussion on allowing more movement around its 0% 10-year-yield target or widening its 100bp trading band, but there is no consensus for such a move among the Board’s nine members. Dissenting votes will be closely monitored.
  • The link to the full MNI preview is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/54914/BOJ%20...
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