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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Race Deadlocked Despite Trump Momentum

Daily round-up of news from the US.
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Executive summary:

  • Former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris according to most of the major presidential election forecast models.
  • The New York Times national polling average has tightened to a single percentage-point lead for Harris. Such a narrow lead is likely to worry Democrats, who fear a repeat of Trump’s Electoral College advantage and fear that a polling miss is more likely to benefit Trump than Harris. 
  • Campaign financing records show that Harris raised USD$1B faster than any other presidential candidate in history.
  • Republicans lead in statewide early voting in Nevada for the first time in a presidential year since 2008.
  • Democrats’ prospects of retaining the Senate are looking even dimmer, with three races across the Midwest tightening in line with the presidential race.
  • The 2025 Congress is likely to be crypto-friendly, regardless of who controls the gavels and occupies the White House.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Middle East yesterday for his 11th trip to the region since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
  • US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed to reporters yesterday that an advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system and 100 US ground troops are now in place in Israel.
  • Poll of the Day: Trump's favourability is higher than 2020 and 2016, suggesting he could have a higher vote-share ceiling than many analysts presume. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief

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Executive summary:

  • Former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris according to most of the major presidential election forecast models.
  • The New York Times national polling average has tightened to a single percentage-point lead for Harris. Such a narrow lead is likely to worry Democrats, who fear a repeat of Trump’s Electoral College advantage and fear that a polling miss is more likely to benefit Trump than Harris. 
  • Campaign financing records show that Harris raised USD$1B faster than any other presidential candidate in history.
  • Republicans lead in statewide early voting in Nevada for the first time in a presidential year since 2008.
  • Democrats’ prospects of retaining the Senate are looking even dimmer, with three races across the Midwest tightening in line with the presidential race.
  • The 2025 Congress is likely to be crypto-friendly, regardless of who controls the gavels and occupies the White House.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Middle East yesterday for his 11th trip to the region since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
  • US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed to reporters yesterday that an advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system and 100 US ground troops are now in place in Israel.
  • Poll of the Day: Trump's favourability is higher than 2020 and 2016, suggesting he could have a higher vote-share ceiling than many analysts presume. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief