Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
JPY
USD/JPY is relatively steady in the first part of Thursday trade, holding above 148.00, slightly below end NY levels from Wednesday. The main focus today will be on Deputy Governor Uchida's speech at 10:30am (0130 GMT) local time today, followed by a press conference at 2:30pm (0530 GMT). The tone around March exit risks will be a focus point for markets.
- Our Tokyo policy team noted: "Uchida will likely explain the latest Outlook Report released in January to business leaders as BOJ deputy governor always has a chance to speak to business leaders after the BOJ quarterly Outlook Report. Apart from the Outlook Report, he is expected to talk about the near-future outlook for monetary policy."
- "The focus is whether he will leave markets’ speculation over March policy changes triggered by the summary of opinions at the January meeting alone or he will tone down or calm the markets’ view. As you know Ueda highlighted the BOJ's progress toward hitting the 2% target but he didn’t elaborate on the BOJ will act either March or April meetings."
- The market doesn't appear to be expecting fireworks. Overnight JPY implied vol is comfortably off 2023 highs, see the chart below. A 1 standard deviation move gives us a range of 146.94-149.13 (with a probability of 79%) for the next session.
- In the risk reversal space, the 1 week is comfortably within recent ranges, last at -0.79, well above 2023 lows.
Fig 1: USD/JPY Overnight Implied Vol
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok