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BOK: Preview: Bias Turns to a Cut, with Outlook Measured.

BOK
GlobalEM BulletBulletSouth KoreaAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • The shift in sentiment towards a rate cut has moved rapidly in the last week.
  • Following the weaker than expected CPI and a contraction in the PMI, the door is now ajar for a rate cut.
  • The BOK has been focused on the surge in property prices in Seoul yet recent data shows that the macro-prudential measures put in place are having an effect with the number of transactions and average sale price declining.
  • Whilst exports have remained robust, it appears that the decline in consumer confidence is the primary focus and September's consumer confidence data supports that.
  • Our bias now turns to a cut at the next meeting of the BOK on October 11, with the accompanying statement reasonably measured to allow the impact of the cut, the effects of the China stimulus and the flow on from the cut in rates by the US Federal Reserve to be seen.
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  • The shift in sentiment towards a rate cut has moved rapidly in the last week.
  • Following the weaker than expected CPI and a contraction in the PMI, the door is now ajar for a rate cut.
  • The BOK has been focused on the surge in property prices in Seoul yet recent data shows that the macro-prudential measures put in place are having an effect with the number of transactions and average sale price declining.
  • Whilst exports have remained robust, it appears that the decline in consumer confidence is the primary focus and September's consumer confidence data supports that.
  • Our bias now turns to a cut at the next meeting of the BOK on October 11, with the accompanying statement reasonably measured to allow the impact of the cut, the effects of the China stimulus and the flow on from the cut in rates by the US Federal Reserve to be seen.