Bolsonaro Far Behind Lula In Polls Despite Infra Push

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro continues to trail leftist Workers' Party candidate Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva in opinon polls, despite an effort to court Brazil's poorer working class voters with infrastructure projects and increased welfare payments.

• Genial/Quaest poll: Lula (PT): 52% (-), Bolsonaro (PL): 26% (-1), Moro (PODE): 8% (-2), Gomes (PDT): 8% (+2).(+/- vs. January 2022). Fieldwork: 6-9 February 2022 Sample size: 2,000. Don't Knows excluded.
• The Washington Post reported on 6 February that Bolsonaro has sought to bolster his election prospects by courting poorer voters in northeastern Brazil, a demographic historically favourable to Lula's PT:
  • "[Bolsonaro] tripled the number of trips he made in 2021 to the northeast [...] where he lauded infrastructure projects [...]. He has clashed with his austerity-focused finance minister to put more money into the pockets of the poor through cash redistribution programs. [...] he unveiled Brazil Aid, which pays about USD80 per month per person to millions of poor people — double the amount dispensed by a program created during Lula’s tenure."
• However, Bolsonaro's handling of the COVID pandemic appears to have done significant damage to his standing in a largely pro-vaccine country.
• Both first round and hypothetical second round polling shows Bolsonaro trailing former president Lula by double-digit margins. However, with eight months to go until the election, there remains time for public sentiment to shift.