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Bolsonaro Narrows Gap On Lula In Latest 2nd Round Poll

BRAZIL

Latest opinion polling ahead of the October presidential election shows incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro narrowing the deficit between himself and likely second-round run-off challenger, leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The MDA poll shows Lula just short of winning an overall majority in the 2 October first round election, and then leading Bolsonaro by 56% to 44% in a hypothetical second-round matchup.

  • MDA poll: Lula (PT): 48% (+3), Bolsonaro (PL): 39% (+3), Gomes (PDT): 8% (-). (+/- vs. 4-7 May 2022). Fieldwork: 25-28 August 2022. Sample size: 2,002
  • Brazil (Presidential election), MDA poll: Second round: Lula (PT): 56% (-2), Bolsonaro (PL): 44% (+2), (+/- vs. 4-7 2022). Fieldwork: 25-28 August 2022. Sample size: 2,002, Don't Knows excluded.
  • The first televised debate that took place on 28 August saw fiery exchanges between the candidates, with Bolsonaro repeatedly calling Lula an 'ex-convict' (referring to his overturned corruption conviction), and stating that, "Your government was the most corrupt in Brazilian history". In turn, Lula said that Bolsonaro's policies were "destroying" Brazil.
  • Brazil's political tensions only likely to intensify as election day nears, raising the prospect of social unrest in the run-up to or aftermath of the vote.

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