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Bond markets await the ECB decision

BOND SUMMARY

Treasuries have reversed some of yesterday's weakness as equities have recovered some of their losses after yesterday's rout. Bunds and gilts are largely unchanged on the day with Bunds having recovered some of the overnight weakness on the open.

  • The main event of the day will be the ECB meeting and press conference. Any new measures will be announced at 12:45GMT/8:45ET with the press conference beginning at 13:30GMT/9:30ET. Most analysts expect fresh easing initiatives to be put off until December, with today's meeting setting the tone. However, new measures announced today cannot be ruled out. Peripheral spreads are a little wider as we await the meeting and continue to digest the lockdown measures announced by Merkel and Macron yesterday.
  • The data calendar so far today has focused on inflation in Europe with Spanish HICP softer than expectations but some of the regional German inflation data has been a bit higher than expectations of the national print would suggest.
  • TY1 futures are down 0-00+ today at 138-25 with 10y UST yields up 0.9bp at 0.782% and 2y yields down -0.5bp at 0.144%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.05 today at 176.12 with 10y Bund yields down -0.1bp at -0.628% and Schatz yields down -0.4bp at -0.798%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.01 today at 136.18 with 10y yields up 0.4bp at 0.215% and 2y yields up 0.1bp at -0.66%.
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