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BONDS: Bunds/Gilts Off Lows As Outages Drive Risk-Off Moves

BONDS

Bund and Gilt futures have recovered from intraday lows as markets see broad-based risk-off moves following reports of widespread global system outages.

  • A "bad patch" from cybersecurity company Crowdstrike has been cited as the likely trigger for the outages.
  • Bund futures remain -12 at 132.51 though, following yesterday’s post-ECB rally which saw another step closer to resistance at 132.80 (Jun 25 high).
  • ECB commentary yesterday and this morning (including source reports) has highlighted that the 2024 rate outlook is uncertain.
  • Bloomberg sources signalled concerns that the ECB may only be able to deliver one additional cut this year. 
  • Meanwhile Reuters sources noted that Governing Council hawks could still support a September rate cut if the data allowed.
  • Gilts underperform Bunds despite the weaker-than-expected retail sales data, with futures -22 at 98.59.
  • 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are a little tighter despite the outage-induced equity market weakness.
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