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BONDS: EGB Supply, Gas Prices And Downside Momentum Weigh On Tuesday

BONDS

Bund futures are weaker again this morning, while Gilts have caught up with yesterday’s wider core FI sell-off as UK markets return from the Bank Holiday. European supply burdens and an uptick in natural gas prices will have weighed in the absence of market-moving data releases.

  • Bund futures are -35 ticks today at 133.97, through the first support at 134.16 (20-day EMA). 
  • In Gilts, U4 remains the active contract, though the roll to Z4 will likely be complete by tomorrow/Thursday. U4 currently trades -55 ticks today at 99.39
  • The German and UK cash curves have bear steepened, while major 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are wider.
  • E2.5bln of 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term supply was digested smoothly, as was E4bln of the 2.50% Oct-29 Bobl is at 1030BST.
  • This morning, German Q2 GDP confirmed flash estimates at -0.1% Q/Q, while GfK consumer confidence was weaker than expected.
  • ECB-speak headlines the remainder of today’s regional calendar, with the usually hawkish Knot (1145BST/1245CET) and Nagel (1500BST) both scheduled.
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