November 19, 2024 18:45 GMT
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Geopol Risk Bid Fades
BONDS
European yields pulled back Tuesday, with geopolitical risk at the fore.
- Core global FI rose in European morning trade amid an escalation of Russia/Ukraine tensions and a change to Russia's nuclear doctrine in response to Ukraine firing US-made missiles into their territory.
- Yields hit the session's lows around 0900 London time. From there, Bunds and Gilts weakened fairly steadily as risk-off sentiment faded, with Russian foreign Minister Lavrov saying "a nuclear war will not happen."
- While 10Y Bunds / Gilts closed up 7bp / 6bp respectively from their lows, German and UK curves both bull steepened on the day, with EGB spreads modestly wider.
- ECB's Panetta called for clearer forward guidance on future rate cuts, instead of the current meeting-by-meeting approach.
- BOE's Bailey and Lombardelli said they both see risks to inflation as broadly balanced - but see greater consequences if UK inflation becomes more entrenched.
- On that note, Wednesday's scheduled highlight is UK CPI - MNI's preview is here (PDF). As we write in the preview, we think there is potential for a bigger market reaction to a downside services surprise (vs an upside surprise).
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.2bps at 2.139%, 5-Yr is down 3.2bps at 2.171%, 10-Yr is down 3.5bps at 2.338%, and 30-Yr is down 3.8bps at 2.541%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.8bps at 4.409%, 5-Yr is down 1.6bps at 4.32%, 10-Yr is down 2.3bps at 4.442%, and 30-Yr is down 4.3bps at 4.869%.
- Italian BTP spread up 1.8bps at 121.4bps / Spanish up 1bps at 70.7bps
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