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BoT To Hike 25bp, Disappointing Trade Data

THAILAND

Today the Bank of Thailand announces its decision and is widely expected to hike by 25bp bringing rates to 2%. Many believe that this will be the peak for this cycle. See MNI Bank of Thailand Preview here.

  • The BoT is positive about the growth outlook. April manufacturing production prints today and is expected to fall by 2.3% y/y after -4.6% y/y. There is a wide range of estimates from +5% to -4.7%. The Global S&P manufacturing PMI rose to a record 60.4 in April driven by domestic orders indicating a robust industrial outlook. Capacity utilisation is also released. The May PMI and business confidence indicator are due on Thursday.
  • Balance of payments data for April is also released today and is forecast to show a narrowing in the current account surplus to $2.2bn from $4.78bn in March. It should continue to be supported by recovering tourist numbers, while merchandise exports face global headwinds. As reflected in the customs trade results for April, which showed a trade deficit of $1.47bn (after a surplus of $2.72bn) with exports sinking 7.6% y/y outpacing imports with a 7.3% decline.

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