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Brazil IPCA Inflation Data, US GDP & ECB Decision Expected

LATAM
  • Brazil mid-October inflation data headlines the early docket in LatAm and crosses with Mexico unemployment rate for September. After the close, the Chile central bank policy decision is scheduled. The surveyed median estimate remains for the BCCh to cut the policy rate by 75bps to 8.75%.
  • Focus in the US will be on the advance GDP print, at which markets expect a bumper print that's continued to firm across the year, with some sell-side estimates even topping 5% for the Q/Q annualized reading.
  • The ECB is not expected to deliver any material policy changes at the October meeting. In addition to clearly indicating in September that policy rates are at (or at least very near) peak levels, the ECB will remain on hold given the recent downside inflation surprise, weak growth, delayed impact of previous tightening and notable dilution of hawkish pressure on the GC.
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