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BRAZIL: Mid-August IPCA Inflation Data Expected to Dip

BRAZIL
  • Inflation data for the first half of August will be the latest information for Brazil’s central bank committee, who has reiterated that all options remain on the table for the September 18 decision. The latest Focus survey of economists maintained its consensus estimate for the year-end Selic rate at 10.50%, however, the survey’s adjustment of the 2026 year-end rate projection has added to the developing hawkish narrative in recent months. Analysts now see the Selic rate at 9.50% by the end of 2026, compared to 9.00% just a week ago.
  • There was also a moderate deterioration of inflation expectations in yesterday’s report, and the heavily data dependent stance of the central bank is keeping market participants cautious of whether the BCB might tighten policy during the remainder of this year. The August inflation preview and employment data on Friday are key themes to watch, alongside the ongoing fiscal developments. Data today is due at 1300BST/0800ET:
    • Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 0.17%, prior 0.30%
    • Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 4.33%, prior 4.45%
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