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Brazil Mid-Month Inflation Data Headlines Docket, BCB Focus Survey

LATAM
  • A busier LatAm docket on Tuesday, headlined by Brazilian mid-month IPCA inflation data. Additionally, Brazil will report consumer confidence data and markets will receive the latest results from the BCB’s Focus survey. Elsewhere, Mexico economic activity and Colombia business sentiment indicators will be published. The BCCh will also publish its traders survey, providing the final expectations before Friday’s rate decision.
  • Europe: The EUR is once again underperforming, with the ECB bank lending survey as well as the soft German IFO release working against the single currency. The ECB bank lending survey showed the fastest contraction on record for corporate loan demand, and also described the tightening impact on the Eurozone so far as 'substantial' - thereby working against expectations of subsequent tightening beyond this week's assumed 25bps hike from the ECB.
  • Euro: The EUR is the poorest performer in G10, while the AUD is the strongest. Underlying expectations of fresh measures to support domestic demand in China (and thereby commodities) is helping support currencies tied to industrial metals as well as oil.
  • US: Tuesday’s focus is on US Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Index as well as the July consumer confidence release. The latter is expected to improve from 109.7 previously to 112.0 - the highest since early 2022. There are no central bank speakers on the docket, with both the ECB and the Federal Reserve remaining inside their pre-decision media blackout periods.
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