MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

MNI BRIEF: China Has Been In Communication With U.S. On Trade

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Customs Clearance

MNI INTERVIEW2: Policy Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Satisfaction Up

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY68.6 Bln via OMO Thursday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: SlovGB Auction Monday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -62 BCF TO 1,698 BCF MAR 07 WK

MNI: US FEB FINAL DEMAND PPI +0.0%, EX FOOD, ENERGY -0.1%

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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LATAM FX: Brazilian Real Consolidating Most Recent Advance

LATAM FX
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Despite congress coming back from recess in February, noise related to the political sphere has remained limited in the past couple of weeks, allowing the Brazilian real to consolidate its substantial recovery seen in 2025.
  • This has translated into USDBRL trading within a relatively tight range, broadly respecting the 5.75-5.80 parameters. Overall, a bear cycle remains in play and this signals scope for a deeper retracement lower. Sights remain on 5.7231, the Nov 13 low, and 5.6340, the Nov 7 low. Initial resistance does not come in until 5.9163, the 50-day EMA.
  • SocGen note the economic and fiscal realities have hardly changed in recent months, and they believe fiscal concerns should continue to weigh on investor sentiment, potentially impacting BRL assets sooner or later. Pointing to the BCB’s Focus survey, SocGen highlight that the consensus does not envision fiscal balances improving anytime soon or that public debt will stabilise at an acceptable level in the near future. They think this increases the likelihood of the Copom maintaining a hawkish stance for an extended period.
  • Following today’s poor set of retail sales data for December, attention will turn to next week’s economic activity data, as well as the usual release of the central bank’s Focus survey.
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  • Despite congress coming back from recess in February, noise related to the political sphere has remained limited in the past couple of weeks, allowing the Brazilian real to consolidate its substantial recovery seen in 2025.
  • This has translated into USDBRL trading within a relatively tight range, broadly respecting the 5.75-5.80 parameters. Overall, a bear cycle remains in play and this signals scope for a deeper retracement lower. Sights remain on 5.7231, the Nov 13 low, and 5.6340, the Nov 7 low. Initial resistance does not come in until 5.9163, the 50-day EMA.
  • SocGen note the economic and fiscal realities have hardly changed in recent months, and they believe fiscal concerns should continue to weigh on investor sentiment, potentially impacting BRL assets sooner or later. Pointing to the BCB’s Focus survey, SocGen highlight that the consensus does not envision fiscal balances improving anytime soon or that public debt will stabilise at an acceptable level in the near future. They think this increases the likelihood of the Copom maintaining a hawkish stance for an extended period.
  • Following today’s poor set of retail sales data for December, attention will turn to next week’s economic activity data, as well as the usual release of the central bank’s Focus survey.