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Brazilian Real Consolidating Most Recent Bounce

BRAZIL
  • The 5.00 mark for USDBRL continues to act as a key pivot for the pair, capping the price action well during Tuesday’s trading session. Buoyed by the broader improvement of risk sentiment linked to China’s RRR cut overnight, the Real extended its most recent recovery to around 4.92/usd, where it has been consolidating today.
  • Assisting the greater optimism for the local currency, Brazil’s VP Alckmin explaining that the negative market reaction to the industrial plan was based on misinformation might be providing additional BRL support. The aforementioned plan will have no fiscal impact, BNDES director Jose Gordon said in an interview with O Globo.
  • Overall, USDBRL’s trend condition remains bearish, with the latest recovery considered corrective. However, the pair has pierced resistance at 4.9771, the Dec 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery above the 5.00 handle, towards 5.0696, the Oct 31 high. Initial support lies at 4.9027, the Jan 19 low.

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