BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Decline For First Time Since June '22 Due To Easter Effect

The value of UK Total Retail Sales in the BRC-KPMG measure declined in April on a year-over-year basis for the first time since June 2022 (by 4.0% Y/Y vs growth of +3.5% Y/Y in March). The majority of this decline was due to the earlier timing of Easter, as the BRC notes that the average growth for the combined period of March and April together was +0.2%. However, this is still a very weak print as there have been no months with Y/Y growth of less than +1.0% since June 2022.

• Similarly, Like-For-Like Sales value decreased 4.4% Y/Y in April (vs a growth +3.2% Y/Y in March).
• Looking at the 3-month average measures, total sales grew by 0.5%3M Y/Y, down from 2.1%3M Y/Y in the 3-months to March (boosted by the early Easter) and the more comparable 1.4%3M Y/Y in the 3-months to February.
• Non-food sales of -2.8%3M Y/Y have only been softer once since the 3-months to the end of February 2021 (in the 3-months to the end of June 2022 - which were impacted by the Diamond Jubilee extra bank holiday and also by an early Easter).
• Food Sales remained in growth in 3M Y/Y terms but continued to experience a slowdown to +4.4% 3M Y/Y (from +6.8% 3M Y/Y prior)- the sixth consecutive monthly slowdown and the lowest print since August 2022 (although this is partly helped by food prices disinflating).
• ONS Retail Sales value (ex-fuel) rose +3.4% Y/Y in March - slightly faster than February's +3.2% Y/Y reading but below January's revised strong start to the year of +4.9% Y/Y. The ONS series has generally been running higher than the BRC-KPMG data over the past year or so, and today's data suggest we will see a fall in the ONS data in April, albeit by less than the BRC-KPMG series.
• Chief Executive of the BRC said "Many retailers are hoping for brighter sales over the summer months as social events ramp up, and consumer confidence could improve with a potential cut in interest rates."
• Data covers 31 March - 27 April 2024.