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BRC-KPMG Retail Sales plateau, with Non-food Sales in decline Y/Y

UK DATA

UK Total Retail Sales value rate of increase fell to +1.7% Y/Y (vs +2.7% Y/Y prior) in December 2023. Similarly, Like-For-Like Sales value rate of appreciation slowed to +1.9% Y/Y (vs +2.6% Y/Y prior).

  • Total Retail Sales is now below the 3-month average growth of +2.3% and the 12-month average growth of +3.6%.
  • The main driver of the slowing in sales value growth is due to Non-food sales declining -1.5% over the three months to December - steeper than the 12-month average decline of -0.1%.
  • Moreover, whilst Food Sales continue to increase at +6.8% to the three months to December, the rate continues to slow below the 12-month average of +8.1%.
  • Chief Executive of the BRC warns, '2024 looks to be another challenging year... spending will continue to be constrained by high living costs..' and 'disruption to shipments from the Far East via the Red Sea' are expected to increase cost pressures.
  • ONS retail sales value (ex-fuel) rose +5.7% Y/Y in November, a gain after the recent downtrend in data and a divergence away from BRC dataset.
  • Data covers 26 November - 30 December 2023.

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