UK DATA
UK Total Retail Sales growth slowed for the third consecutive month, although at a slower rate, to +1.1% Y/Y in February (vs +1.2%Y/Y prior) - remaining the lowest rate since August 2022.
- Similarly, Like-For-Like Sales slowed to +1.0% Y/Y (vs +1.4% Y/Y prior), the lowest pace since June 2022. However, this is a value rather than volume series so the slowdown partly reflects disinflation in goods prices.
- Total Retail Sales remains below the 3-month average growth +1.4%, driven by the increased rate of decline in 'Non-Food' Sales at -2.5% 3M Y/Y 3-months ending February (vs -1.8% 3M Y/Y prior).
- Food Sales also contributed to the slowdown, although it remained in growth, as the rate of increase slowed for the fifth consecutive month to +6.0% 3M Y/Y (vs +6.3% 3M Y/Y prior).
- ONS Retail Sales (ex-fuel) rose +5.2% Y/Y in value terms in January. Despite, the recent divergence between the ONS series and BRC-KPMG data, the overall long-term trend indicates that the ONS series should see a slowdown in retail sales over the next few months.
- The upcoming budget will be watched closely for any tax cuts which could increase household disposable income - but it is questionable whether this would have significant impacts on retail sales growth.
- Data covers 28 January - 24 February 2024.
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