UK DATA
BRC-KPMG retail sales increased 3.2% Y/Y in December, reversing nearly all of November's -3.3% Y/Y, but it should be taken with a pinch of salt as the survey period included Black Friday this time around (it wasn't included in Dec'23).
- This is technically the highest reading since March 2024 (which was boosted by the earlier timing of Easter) whilst Like-for-Like sales increased 3.1% Y/Y (vs a fall of 3.4% in November).
- Food sales rose 1.7% Y/Y in December after 2.2% Y/Y in Nov whilst non-food sales jumped 4.4% Y/Y after -7.9% Y/Y on the same Black Friday distortion.
- Smoothing out the distortion, the three month to December figures saw sales growth of just 0.4% 3M Y/Y.
- Given the BRC follows the ONS calendar dates, it is likely ONS December retail sales will also be firm, somewhat artificially inflated by the inclusion of Black Friday sales.
- Data covers: 24 November - 28 December 2024.
Looking ahead, the Chief Executive of the BRC projects sales growth to average 1.2% in 2025, below projected shop price inflation of 1.8%.
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