UK DATA
UK Total Retail Sales growth slowed to +1.2% Y/Y in January (vs +1.7% Y/Y prior) - the lowest since August 2022, similarly Like-For-Like Sales rose less at +1.4% Y/Y (vs +1.9% Y.Y prior).
- Total Retail Sales is now below the 3-month average growth of +1.9% as well as below the 12-month average growth of +3.4%. Although this is partly due to falling inflation.
- The main driver for the slowdown in sales growth was an increased rate of decline in Non-Food Sales to -1.8% 3M Y/Y (vs -1.5% 3M Y/Y prior) - which was below both the 12-month average decline of -0.5%.
- Food Sales rate of growth also contributed to the slowdown, although it remained in growth Y/Y in January, as the rate of increase declined to +6.3% 3M Y/Y (vs +6.8% 3M Y/Y prior).
- ONS Retail Sales (ex-fuel) rose +2.3% Y/Y in value-terms in December. The ONS series continues to run above the BRC retail sales, but the trend is indicating that in value terms the ONS series is unlikely to see a significant rise in January.
- Data covers 31 December 2023 - 27 January 2024.
Source: MNI,ONS,BRC-KPMG
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