MNI BRIEF: Inflation Expectations Tick Higher - NY Fed
MNI (WASHINGTON) - All three of the New York Fed's median measures of consumer inflation expectations ticked up a tenth in November, according to the bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations, with households expressing more optimism about their finances.
One-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.97%, three-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.57%, and five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.86%, the survey said. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents, the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations, also increased at all three time horizons.
Earnings and household income growth expectations both rose in November. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0%, and the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 13.2%, the lowest reading since June 2024, the survey said. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-Fed's Blinder Sees Stagflation Shock Ahead)