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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EURAUD
- The RBA's hawkish policy hold overnight continues to push AUD to the top of the G10 table, with AUD gains most notable against NOK, JPY and EUR so far today.
- The move puts EUR/AUD through horizontal support drawn off the mid-2017 lows at 1.4424, with prices now at the lowest levels since late April 2017 - narrowing the proximity with the 2017 cyclical low of 1.3627.
- Policy expectations remain the key driver for AUD at this juncture, shrugging off the previously-held correlation with market volatility and allowing AUD to look through near-term geopolitical risk emanating from the Ukraine crisis (see: https://marketnews.com/cautious-rba-could-work-aga... ).
- The overnight price action has tipped the EUR/AUD RSI into oversold territory for the third time in 2022. The previous two occasions prompted a corrective recovery in the cross, followed by a resumption of the longer-term downtrend once the oversold condition was cleared.
- Sell-side analysts remain bullish on AUD. On March 10th, CIBC cited long AUD as their highest conviction view, with the commodity prices, Australian inflation expectations and a leaning hawkish RBA working in the currency's favour.
Figure 1: EUR/AUD vs. RSI
Source: MNI/BBG
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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