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Brent at $80/bbl in Q1 Rising to $85/bbl in Q2: Energy Aspects

OIL

Energy Aspects expects Brent crude to hold near $80/bbl during Q1 2024 before rising to $85$/bbl or higher during Q2 according to Amrita Sen in a Bloomberg interview.

  • Global oil markets are likely to remain balanced during the first quarter with OPEC+ production cuts largely intended to offset seasonal inventory builds. Energy Aspects see no current geopolitical risk premium in prices.
  • In early 2024 “we could see a small draw, a counter-seasonal draw,” said Sen.
  • Angola’s exit from OPEC won’t affect the group’s unity.
  • Demand growth is expected to slow to about 1.2m b/d in 2024.
  • “From the latter half of the second quarter, once refineries are back from maintenance, you’re going to see crude draw very sharply.”
  • A “choppy” price environment has hurt trader confidence but will recover with sustained inventory draws.

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