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Brent Forecast for 2024 Reduced to 93$/bbl on Looser Balances: Barclays


Barclays has reduced its Brent forecast for 2024 by 4$/bbl to 93$/bbl driven by slightly looser balances and a stronger dollar according to Bloomberg. The lower forecast is based on relatively resilient US supply and an expected increase in Venezuelan supply.

  • “The recent decline in prices is driven primarily by the reappearance of demand concerns and not the fading of the geopolitical risk premium.” The recent concerns over demand which have driven prices lower are “likely misplaced.”
  • The demand outlook net of baseline revisions has been raised with an increase in the China demand forecast by 200kb/d for 2023 and 300kb/d for 2024.
  • Despite the decline, the Brent forecast is still almost 14$/bbl above the pricing of the forward curve.

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