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OIL: Brent in Low to Mid $70s/bbl Amid Oil Demand Uncertainty: Morgan Stanley

OIL
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Oil demand uncertainty weighs amid a softer outlook due to tariffs and counter-tariffs keeping Brent in the low to mid $70s/bbl, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.

  • OPEC+ is set to roll over production quotas at its coming meeting, to keep the market balanced in the second half of 2025.
  • Global oil demand is estimated to grow around 1mb/d in 2025, at the lower end of consensus range.
  • “With global GDP below trend, population growth slowing, China’s demand under pressure and uncertainty created by trade tariffs, we suspect oil demand growth will struggle to reach the historical trend rate of 1.2m b/d”
  • OECD inventories should slowly build in H1 2025 before stabilizing in H2 2025. 
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Oil demand uncertainty weighs amid a softer outlook due to tariffs and counter-tariffs keeping Brent in the low to mid $70s/bbl, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.

  • OPEC+ is set to roll over production quotas at its coming meeting, to keep the market balanced in the second half of 2025.
  • Global oil demand is estimated to grow around 1mb/d in 2025, at the lower end of consensus range.
  • “With global GDP below trend, population growth slowing, China’s demand under pressure and uncertainty created by trade tariffs, we suspect oil demand growth will struggle to reach the historical trend rate of 1.2m b/d”
  • OECD inventories should slowly build in H1 2025 before stabilizing in H2 2025.