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Brief Sell-Side Analyst Overview #4: Wed BoC Policy Annc

CANADA

RBC:RBC anticipates liftoff in April, 2022 and expect the BoC to reiterate, "barring significant further disruptions from the new virus variant, the economy is on track to fully recover by mid- 2022."

  • Conditions in the economy have unfolded broadly in line with the central bank’s expectations, with labour markets continuing to improve and inflation running well above the central bank’s target albeit at rates broadly in line with previous projections.
Scotiabank: Steady at 0.25 for now, Scotiabank will be listening carefully to Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle's economic progress report on Thursday.
  • "Perhaps exit guidance will once again be Gravelle’s focus this time around, in which case I would watch for refreshed guidance on reinvestment and maybe asset sales."
  • As for the statement and Gravelle’s broader guidance, the best course of action for the BoC is likely to play it safe in a short and sweet statement that defers deeper thoughts to the next meeting on January 26th 2022 which will be a full meeting including a Monetary Policy Report containing fresh forecasts.
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