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British American Tobacco (BATSLN; Baa2 Pos, BBB+ S, BBB+ S)

CONSUMER STAPLES
  • FV is +130, +27bps above PM (A2, A-, A-) & -15bps inside Altria (MO; A3, BBB, BBB).
  • FV is 55bps inside IPT. Similar tightening to Japan Tobacco last week (books were well covered at 8.8*) would see another double digit NIC on offer.
  • BAT curve has compressed aggressively - some of this is justified on company surprising us with continued de-leveraging, some of it has been on broader compression. As mentioned before we don't expect a S&P upgrade into A- on new leverage targets (2-2.5*).
  • The 2045's (not included below) trade tight (at +177) vs. PM (39's +158) and is likely skewed by yield dynamics.
  • IPT: BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO €BMARK 8Y MS+185 AREA

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