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BRL Bolstered At Open, IPCA Inflation Data Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real is again trading with a more optimistic tone following the open on the back of China stimulus hopes and the associated consolidation of Monday’s advance for global equity benchmarks. On the downside for USDBRL, key short-term support has been defined at 4.9883, the Sep 29 low.
  • As a reminder, China is considering raising its budget deficit for 2023 as the government prepares to unleash a new round of stimulus to help the economy meet the government’s annual growth target, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Today, Brazil’s Treasury will offer inflation-linked bonds maturing in 2028, 2040 and 2060. Analysts note the so-called NTN-Bs have been an alternative for investors that want to benefit from the recent surge in rates to add receivers, but are not comfortable enough to do it without hedging CPI.
  • On inflation, September IPCA data is expected to rise to 5.26% Y/y on Wednesday. The latest central bank Focus survey, released yesterday, kept 2023 year-end inflation expectations steady at 4.86%.
  • Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto also heads to Marrakesh, in Morocco, to attend IMF and World Bank annual meetings. He will be giving a lecture at the Emerging Markets Forum.
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