BRL finished the session slightly....>

BRAZILIAN REAL: BRL finished the session slightly stronger Monday, but USD/BRL

found support at the 200-dma of 3.8432. This coincided with short-end vols

ticking slightly higher, with both 1w and 1m measures inching upwards, but still

well short of recent cycle highs. Today may be an interesting session with the

pension reform bill supposedly headed to the lower house of congress after which

the speaker Rodrigo Maia will issue a judgement on the proposals (although, this

may not materialise today). This all comes ahead of the vote in Congress

pencilled in for April 17th.

-SocGen today write that Congress still holds more leverage than the government

over pension reform, stemming from Congress' ability to have the final say over

what kind of bill is approved, with recent news suggesting the government is yet

to establish a credible working relationship with lawmakers. As a result, while

SocGen remain hopeful on the pension bill, they see greater downside risks. On

the BRL, SocGen write that continued pressure on BRL could lead to ruling out of

the possibility of additional easing in this cycle, even though the growth

outlook comes under renewed pressure.