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BRL Weakness Extends On Inflation Target Reports, DI Curve Steepens

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL is extending gains following the reports that Brazil may conduct an early review of the central bank's inflation target, fuelling speculation that they may be increased. Initial resistance at 5.2557 has been breached.
  • The reports come amid ongoing attacks from President Lula of the undesirably high interest rates in Brazil. The reports are weighing on the Brazilian Real as markets speculate on potentially easier monetary policy in the short-term but additionally have to factor in the potential interference in the BCB's autonomy.
  • As expected the DI swaps curve is steepening, with the front end rallying and pressure being seen towards the belly and long end of the curve.
  • Brazil DI Swaps:
    • Jan '24 -10 bps at 13.45%
    • Jan '27 +15 bps at 13.07%
    • Jan '31 +27 bps at 13.61%


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