Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- There was a clear rolling over in both core goods (+0.23% M/M) and core services (+0.35% M/M) – first chart.
- Considering the strength in shelter mentioned earlier, core CPI ex shelter slides from +0.78% M/M to +0.15% M/M, the softest print since Sep’21.
- A small drop in used cars prices (-0.4% after +1.6%) weighs but the largest decline came from airfares (-7.8%, behind circa 0.6pps of the change in M/M core).
- However, take out the shelter, used cars & airfares, and core saw a similar slowdown to circa 0.35% M/M, in what would also be the weakest since Sep’21 – second chart.
- Other notable changes include a pause in apparel (-0.1% after +0.8%) and an unwinding in medical care services (+0.4% after +0.7%).
- The combination sees Fed Funds implied hikes cut to 62bps for the Sep FOMC from 69-70bps prior and a terminal trimmed to 3.53% for the Mar'23 meeting, helping drive a significant bull steepening in Treasuries (2s10s +11bps at -38bps, with 2YY -15bps on the day), even if that only unwinds the flattening of the past two days.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok