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Broad Euro Weakness Following ECB Report, USDCNH Extends Bounce

FOREX
  • Despite EURUSD rising to within close range of trend highs above 1.0850 in early trade on Tuesday, a Bloomberg report quickly dampened sentiment for the single currency.
  • ECB policymakers are said to be starting to consider a slower pace of interest-rate hikes than President Christine Lagarde indicated in December, according to officials with knowledge of their discussions.
  • Following the piece, ECB terminal rate pricing briefly dropped as much as 17bp and the Euro traded with a negative bias for the remainder of Tuesday’s session, currently residing 0.25% lower against the greenback around 1.0795. Initial firm support lies further away at 1.0680, the 20-day EMA.
    • The relative Euro weakness was more pronounced in the crosses with the likes of EURGBP and EURNZD dropping ~1%.
  • USDJPY lacked direction are largely respected the 128-129 range ahead of the much anticipated BOJ meeting & decision due overnight. Options markets are implying moves of approx 275 pip in either direction to cover the premium paid on an ATM straddle, a sure sign that markets are anticipating acute volatility in the wake of the decision.
  • USDCNH has risen roughly half a percent, in very similar fashion to Monday’s price action, which may be a reflection of the stabilisation for the greenback but also pre-positioning ahead of lunar new year.
  • Aside from the BOJ, UK December CPI, US PPI & retail sales highlight Wednesday’s data calendar.

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