Broad Risk-Off Leads Oil Lower, Gold Stabilises

A vague sense of risk-off has led global equity markets lower, in likely profit-taking after a strong start to 2021. Resulting USD strength has weighed on the broader commodity complex, leading to underperformance in oil and industrial metals. Brent crude futures are off around $0.80 at pixel time, opening a gap with cycle highs printed in early Asia-Pac trade at $56.39.

Precious metals have stabilised after last week's weakness, but not before spot gold showed again below the 200-dma at $1839.79. A solid break and close below this support would be bearish, opening levels not seen since early December.

On commodities, Goldman Sachs this morning wrote that they see a circa 10% return in the S&P GSCI index over the next 12 months, although markets are likely to consolidate in the near-term given the magnitude of the recent rally.