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BTP/Bund Spread At Feb '22 Tights

EGBS

The 10-year BTP/Bund spread has tightened 3.2bps today, currently trading at 144.3bps.

  • This leaves the spread at the tightest levels since February 2022 and comes alongside a broader bond rally.
  • BTP futures are +71 ticks at 118.01, but the key near-term resistance at 119.27 (Jan 30 high) is still some way off.
  • There hasn’t been much in the way of notable headline flow to drive the moves.
  • A dovish move in ECB-dated OIS (back to pricing 100bps of ’24 cuts) will be helping the bid.
  • Comments from ECB's Centeno (open to a March rate cut) were in line with his previous stance.
  • Next week's European calendar is headlined by February flash inflation readings. National releases will start to cross on Thursday, with the Eurozone wide release due Friday.
  • The early BBG survey median sees core Eurozone HICP at +2.9% Y/Y (vs +3.3% prior) and headline HICP at +2.5% Y/Y (vs +2.8% prior).
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