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Budget Expected ~1600ET

CANADA
  • RBC note fiscal tracking suggests scope for a smaller budget deficit for FY 22/23 than the C$36.4B expected in the Fall Economic Statement.
  • Bloomberg’s survey of economists sees as much as C$10B in new annual expenditures, primarily focused on green-industry incentives in response to the US Inflation Reduction Act, plus health care and support for lower-incomes.
  • Scotia see these spending packages pushing deficits up over the forecast horizon compared to the FES, starting with C$36.8B in FY 23/24 vs 30.6. Net debt should importantly remain on a downward trajectory from 42% GDP in FY 22/23, only edging to 41.9% in 23/24 before falling to 38.4% by 27/28.
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