MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, January 13

MNI BRIEF: China December Vehicle Sales Up 10.5%

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MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Oil Imports Down 1.9%

CHINA DEC EXPORTS +10.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +7.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1885 Mon; -2.21% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Exports Grow 5.9% Y/Y

CHINA 2024 EXPORTS +7.1% IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

USDA: CORN STOCKS 12,074M BSL ON JAN 1

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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OIL: Building On Friday Gains, Multi Month Highs Post Fresh US Sanctions

OIL
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Monday oil trends are seeing an extension of Friday's gains. Brent crude was last comfortably above $81/bbl, in terms of the active contract. WTI was around $78.2/bbl in latest dealings, with both contracts up around 2%. We were up over 3.5% in Friday trade for these oil benchmarks. 

  • For WTI, the stronger reversal to the upside has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. For Brent, mid August highs from 2024 around $82.40/bbl may be an upside focus point.  
  • Sentiment is being supported by fresh sanctions from the US administration on Russia, with the U.S treasury issuing details on a widely speculated list of further sanctions on Russian oil entities. Still, BBG notes they are quite comprehensive relative to what was already in place (see this link).
  • The new US sanctions on Russian crude and products is bullish for oil globally, but history has shown Russian barrels generally find markets despite sanctions, Platts said.
  • Data today showed softer China oil import volumes, which were down in y/y terms for Dec last year, but this has done little to impact positive sentiment at this stage. 
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Monday oil trends are seeing an extension of Friday's gains. Brent crude was last comfortably above $81/bbl, in terms of the active contract. WTI was around $78.2/bbl in latest dealings, with both contracts up around 2%. We were up over 3.5% in Friday trade for these oil benchmarks. 

  • For WTI, the stronger reversal to the upside has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. For Brent, mid August highs from 2024 around $82.40/bbl may be an upside focus point.  
  • Sentiment is being supported by fresh sanctions from the US administration on Russia, with the U.S treasury issuing details on a widely speculated list of further sanctions on Russian oil entities. Still, BBG notes they are quite comprehensive relative to what was already in place (see this link).
  • The new US sanctions on Russian crude and products is bullish for oil globally, but history has shown Russian barrels generally find markets despite sanctions, Platts said.
  • Data today showed softer China oil import volumes, which were down in y/y terms for Dec last year, but this has done little to impact positive sentiment at this stage.