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Gold has once again recovered some ground following the overnight sell-off. We are back to $1815, after dipping sub $1810 late in NY trading.
- Today's moves are line with broader USD weakness, with the DXY around 0.2% lower though the session, back to 105.30, from a high of +105.50.
- US yields have also seen somewhat of a reversal, with the 2yr and 10yr off around 6bps and 5bps respectively at this stage. This has likely helped the precious metal at the margin.
- This follows very sharp moves higher in recent session though. The US real 10yr jumped a further 20bps overnight to 0.89%. This time last week we were still sub 0.30%.
- The chart below plots gold versus the real US 10yr, which is inverted on the chart. Such a backdrop may see gold struggle in the near term, or at least until we have greater clarity around the Fed outlook. Note the mid-May lows in gold were just below $1790.
- Goldman's has nudged down its gold forecast for the next 3-6 months, but they still sit higher than current spot levels. The bank expects gold to be back at $2100 in 3 months’ time, $2300 in 6 months. The 12 month target of $2500 was unchanged. Emerging market gold demand is expected to rebound in H2 the bank stated.
Fig 1: Gold & US Real 10yr Yield
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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