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Building Permits Fall By Less Than Expected, Single- And Multi-Unit Divergence Extends

US DATA
  • Housing starts increased by less than expected in September to 1358k (cons 1383k) after a downward revised 1269k. That translates to a 7.0% bounce after a heavy -12.5% slide.
  • From a surprise perspective it was offset by a smaller than expected decline in the less noisy building permits, to 1473k (cons 1453k) after a marginally downward revised 1541k. That marks a -4.4% drop after a 6.8% increase.
  • Focusing on permits for a better sense of trend, they remain above the level seen ahead of the pandemic, in line with the recovery in new home sales over the past year and in contrast to existing home sales which have continued to slide along with mortgage applications.
  • The noisy multi-unit segment continues to swing (-14.3% M/M after +15.6%) whilst the single-family segment continues to grow at a robust pace (1.8% M/M after +1.9%), extending unusual divergence between the two.

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