Bulgarian Opinion Polls Pointing Towards Tight Election On Sunday

Ahead of Sunday's legislative election, opinion polls in Bulgaria show the two largest parties are likely to require numerous coalition allies to put together a majority gov't.

• Market Links poll: Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB): 25% (+3), Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP): 21% (+1), There Is Such A People (ITN): 16%, Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS): 11% (+1), Democratic Bulgaria (DB): 7%, Stand Up.BG (ISMV): 5% (-1), IMRO-Bulgarian National Movement (IMRO-BNM): 4%. (+/-) vs. 17-24 Feb 2021. Fieldwork: 18-25 March 2021. Sample size: 1,026
• Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's centre-right populist GERB currently governs alongside the right-wing nationalist United Patriots (fighting this election as IMRO-BNM). Polling shows a fractured political landscape, with both GERB and the centre-left BSP likely requiring support from one or two additional parties to form a majority coalition.
• This is likely to prove difficult, with the deputy leader of ITN saying in October 2020 that the party would not work with GERB, BSP, or DPS, while the DB co-chair also stated his party's refusal to support GERB 'with or without Borisov'. As such, the eventual coalition is either likely to be made up of parties that break pre-election promises, or a snap early election coinciding with the presidential election in October or November.
• The election campaign has been dominated by the gov'ts slow efforts in vaccinating the population against COVID-19 (Bulgaria has the lowest vaccination per 100 of population rate of any EU member state), and mass anti-corruption protests that took place in 2020.