Bull Flattening, Futures Off Early Sydney Highs

The previously flagged bull flattening impulse from the U.S. Tsy market has spilled into the Aussie bond space since Wednesday’s Sydney close, leaving YM +6.0 & XM +7.0, with both contracts a touch shy of their respective early Sydney peak after initially showing higher at the re-open. Longer dated cash ACGBs are ~8bp richer on the day. 3-Year EFP is ~1.5bp narrower on the day, with 10-Year EFP ~3.0bp narrower, resulting in a flattening of the EFP box.

• Local flash PMI data has failed to provide much in the way of tangible impulse for the space (as is the norm), with the 3 headline readings providing a modest uptick in the rate of expansion when compared to what we saw in Feb. The release noted the continuation of the strong expansion of the economy, while flagging the worsening of price pressures (which was no surprise given the domestic floods, broader supply chain issues & Russia-Ukraine conflict), while warning of the potential for an inflationary drag on business confidence. The trend of higher employment continued, with the report also flagging widely observed upticks in wages. It will now be a case of headline watching, with nothing of note on the domestic docket for the remainder of the session.