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Bullion Range Trading, Key PCE Price Data Coming Up

GOLD
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Gold prices have been range trading during the APAC session with them falling to a low of $2305.20/oz after rising to $2322.14. They are currently down only 0.1% to $2313.00 after falling 0.3% on Wednesday and are still 3.8% higher in April. There is little direction from the greenback with the USD index unchanged.

  • Bullion has traded below the 20-day EMA signalling the start of a possible corrective cycle. Initial support is at $2291.60, April 23 low. It has been significantly overbought and a correction would allow that to unwind. The bull trigger is at $2431.50, April 12 high.
  • Gold prices are down 3.3% this week due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and subsequent reduction in safe-haven purchases. It remains elevated though possibly due to increased demand from Asia, inflation hedging and central bank buying.
  • Later US Q1 GDP and core PCE price index, March trade, inventories and weekly jobless claims print. Gold will watch GDP and the consumer price component closely as price moves are highly dependent on Fed expectations. Bloomberg consensus is at 2.5% q/q saar for GDP and an elevated 3.4% for core PCE prices. A print above this would likely weigh on non-yield bearing bullion as Fed easing expectations get pushed back further.
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Gold prices have been range trading during the APAC session with them falling to a low of $2305.20/oz after rising to $2322.14. They are currently down only 0.1% to $2313.00 after falling 0.3% on Wednesday and are still 3.8% higher in April. There is little direction from the greenback with the USD index unchanged.

  • Bullion has traded below the 20-day EMA signalling the start of a possible corrective cycle. Initial support is at $2291.60, April 23 low. It has been significantly overbought and a correction would allow that to unwind. The bull trigger is at $2431.50, April 12 high.
  • Gold prices are down 3.3% this week due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and subsequent reduction in safe-haven purchases. It remains elevated though possibly due to increased demand from Asia, inflation hedging and central bank buying.
  • Later US Q1 GDP and core PCE price index, March trade, inventories and weekly jobless claims print. Gold will watch GDP and the consumer price component closely as price moves are highly dependent on Fed expectations. Bloomberg consensus is at 2.5% q/q saar for GDP and an elevated 3.4% for core PCE prices. A print above this would likely weigh on non-yield bearing bullion as Fed easing expectations get pushed back further.