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Bullish Break Could Prove Significant

EURJPY
  • While US CPI has proved no game changer for the USD, markets have looked to EUR/JPY for signs of a more significant technical break, as the cross tops congestion resistance layered between Y158.00-05.
  • This puts prices at the best levels since August 2008. Historical and horizontal resistance ahead looks sparse, and the 14-day RSI is yet to exhibit overbought conditions - meaning the cross is showing few signs of running out of steam. Nonetheless, focus may turn to the 159.29 uptrendline resistance drawn off the June 2020 high for direction.
  • The further slide in the JPY will raise focus on the potential for further JPY intervention. While USD/JPY is yet to reach the levels at which the BoJ/FSA/MoF last intervened, most trade-weighted JPY measures are nearing the year's lowest levels thanks to the rally in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY today.
  • Kanda, Japan's currency official, last stated the MoF would consider all options on "excessive" currency moves on July 21st. Trade-weighted JPY as fallen close to 2.5% since.
Figure 1: EUR/JPY Nearing Uptrendline Resistance

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