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Bullish Positioning Deteriorates, Technicals Remain Firm

GOLD
  • With yields across the curve moving convincingly higher market participants trimmed bullish positioning, according to the latest CFTC report.
  • The latest data for the week ending Jan. 11 showed money managers dropped their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 4,955 contracts to 119,297. At the same time, short positions increased by 243 contracts to 44,987. Gold's net length now stands at 74,310 contracts, down more than 6% compared to the previous week.
  • One analyst at Commerzbank commented that "In our opinion, market participants are likely to refrain from buying gold ahead of the US Fed's first rate hike. They may be hoping that the Fed's meeting next week (25/26 January) will give them further and/or clearer signals that the Fed will be commencing its rate hike cycle in March."
  • Separately, commodity analysts at TD Securities said, “Hawkish signals coming from the Fed, market expectations suggesting a March Fed funds hike is imminent, and increasing speculation that QT is in the cards over the next twelve months prompted specs to aggressively decrease their long gold exposure.” However, they added that there is a chance gold could catch a bid on short-covering as real interest rates are expected to remain low even as the Fed looks to tighten policy.
  • Technically, Gold conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal recently found support at the base of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 9 low - the Jan 7 low of $1782.8 and the recovery from this level means the yellow metal remains inside its bull channel. Focus remains on key resistance at $1831.9, Jan 3 high and a bull trigger.
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