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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
ANZ business confidence rose to -3.7 in August from -13.1. Business activity outlook rose to +11.2 from +0.8, the third straight positive, and suggests GDP growth recovered further in Q3. These were the highest readings in over two years and 19 months consecutively. All current and forward components also improved while prices/costs continued to ease, so no concern for the RBNZ here yet. The pause in monetary tightening, continued solid demand and increase in labour supply are all supporting business sentiment.
- Cost expectations moderated to 75.3 from 80.6, while still high they continue to trend lower. Capacity utilisation rose to its highest since November 2021, which may add to inflation pressures going forward. Inflation expectations eased to 5.06% to be down 1pp over the last year and pricing intentions fell to 44 from 48.1 but ANZ says that needs to fall below 30. 54% of retailers expect to increase prices in the next 3 months, the lowest since March 2021. Costs are expected to rise more than prices over the next 3 months.
- Employment intentions returned to positive territory for the first time since late last year driven by the services sector. Wage expectations eased to 80.2 from 81.8 with past wage rises up 0.1pp to 5.6% but expectations for 12 months ahead eased to 3.7% from 4.1%.
- Export intentions rose to 7.5 from 1.5 despite disappointing demand from China. Domestically both residential and commercial construction continued to recover, and investment intentions rose.
- See ANZ report here.
NZ ANZ activity outlook vs GDP y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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