Business Survey & Employment Focus Of Week Given Lowe’s Comments

The week ahead contains some important data that the RBA is watching. In his post-March meeting speech, Governor Lowe said that the Board will react to the collective signal from employment, inflation, retail and business survey data. This week the NAB business survey and jobs data print.

• On Tuesday, CBA household spending intentions for February are due. In January they rose 5.2% y/y and signalled that December may have been a trough. Westpac March consumer confidence is also published. This has been significantly more pessimistic than actual spending. The unemployment and housing-related series are likely to be closely monitored.
• The February NAB business survey prints on Tuesday and while off of its peaks has remained optimistic. The employment and price/cost components will be a particular focus. Another positive reading this month would be the first signal of an April rate hike.
• Thursday the important employment data are released. A rebound from the soft January results is expected since the data was significantly impacted by people taking time off between jobs over the summer. A 50k increase in jobs is expected with the unemployment and participation rates improving to 3.6% and 66.6% respectively.
• MI March consumer inflation expectations are also due on Thursday. They moderated to 5.1% last month but have found it difficult to break through 5% for some time.