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GLOBAL MACRO: But EU Still Exposed To Reciprocal Tariffs, Due Today? [2/2]

GLOBAL MACRO
EM BulletFixed Income BulletsBulletMarketsEmerging Market News
  • The greater EU sensitivity to US tariffs on items other than iron/steel & aluminium, noted in part one, could well come into play today though.
  • There has been no sign of a formal announcement on “reciprocal tariffs” from Trump this week, first touted in media reports late last week before Trump himself noted a desire to push ahead with them, but there is growing expectation of an announcement today (potentially at or before the signing of Executive Orders at 1pm ET).  
  • Using the below chart from Bloomberg, Asian countries and Brazil have the most to lose from a reciprocal tariff approach although the EU is likely next when it comes to a major trade bloc.
  • Average EU tariffs on the US exceed US tariffs on the EU by between 0-2pp in the graphic. 
image
Source: Bloomberg
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  • The greater EU sensitivity to US tariffs on items other than iron/steel & aluminium, noted in part one, could well come into play today though.
  • There has been no sign of a formal announcement on “reciprocal tariffs” from Trump this week, first touted in media reports late last week before Trump himself noted a desire to push ahead with them, but there is growing expectation of an announcement today (potentially at or before the signing of Executive Orders at 1pm ET).  
  • Using the below chart from Bloomberg, Asian countries and Brazil have the most to lose from a reciprocal tariff approach although the EU is likely next when it comes to a major trade bloc.
  • Average EU tariffs on the US exceed US tariffs on the EU by between 0-2pp in the graphic. 
image
Source: Bloomberg