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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Two by-election victories for the Labour Party have signalled a continued shift in support from the ruling Conservative Party to opposition Labour Party ahead of the UK general election.
- Both special elections, in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, saw a swing of over 20% from the Conservatives to Labour, with the 23.9% swing in Tamworth cited as the second-highest in history.
- Unlike the by-elections in July when Conservatives defended the seat of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Conservatives have few positives to offset the losses, opting to downplay the results as driven by poor turnout and general protestation of government.
- John Cutice writes in the Times that the results, "are redolent of the outcome of some of the by-elections held in the 1992-97 parliament, which concluded with a Labour landslide."
- Labour leader Keir Starmer, speaking in Mid Bedfordshire, described the results as a “gamechanger” and evidence Labour can, "win seats that we’ve never won before."
- Notably, Reform UK won a greater vote share that the Labour majority in both by-elections, suggesting they will be a major player in marginal seats. Reform leader Richard Tice said: “Twice in same night have Reform ensured Tories lost their seat with this by-election result.”
- Betting markets see the by-elections reinforcing Labour's position as favourite to take a overall majority. According to Smarkets, Labour has an implied probability of 72% of taking a majority, with no overall majorty 20%, and a Conservative majority 9%.
Figure 1: By-Election Final Results
Source: The Times
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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