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CAD Rates Outperform Despite House Price Strength, CPI On Horizon

CANADA
  • BAX futures trade close to session lows, with the front Sep’23 yield -0.02, Dec’23 -0.035 and building to -0.08 for the Jun’24 and beyond.
  • They notably outperform SOFR futures on the day, the latter seeing a sizeable sell-off following the stronger than expected U.Mich survey (2H24 contracts down as much as 20 ticks currently).
  • Strong Canadian house prices had surprisingly little impact earlier, but with domestic focus ultimately on Tuesday’s CPI release. May CPI saw decent progress in the latest M/M rate but it wasn’t enough to budge the three-month run rate from its 3.5-4% range, as the BoC was keen to note when hiking to 5% on Wednesday.
  • BoC-dated OIS currently prices a ~10bp hike for the Sep 9 decision, building to about 2/3 of a hike cumulatively by year-end.

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