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CAD Rates Outperform US, ISM Services Next Trigger

CANADA
  • 3-mth CORRA futures have seen sizeable outperformance to their US counterparts today, with implied yields 5bps higher for the Dec’24 vs 9bps for SOFR.
  • Implied CAD rates have seen some reluctance to push much higher with Wednesday’s BoC on the horizon, but tomorrow’s US ISM services is still to come beforehand (plus CAD labour productivity ahead of the BoC decision).
  • BoC-dated CORRA OIS implied rates have pulled back a little further from pricing a first cut in June (20-21bp cumulative) with circa 35bp of cumulative cuts for July.
  • Further out, the CORH4/Z4 spread shows 78bp of cuts. It’s off the recent low of 65bp of cuts seen on the close prior to Canadian CPI (with a holiday in between on Mon, 19 Feb) but still compares with the 94bp of cuts shown ahead of the Jan 24 decision.

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